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Weekly Commodity Trend Survey

Posted by: bbeamish	Post ID: 4787	Posted on: 2014-05-04	Time(GMT): 18:57:41
05/02/14: Now that we are officially into the month of May one should be very cautious for the next six weeks. Historically, many commodity related business\'s use May as a seasonal pivot (where supply and demand influences peak) so one shouldn\'t be too surprised to see wild gyrations through this transitional period. Since we know most of the world\'s equity markets are very overextended I am troubled by what I see developing in the long end of the yield curve (see WCTS Blog post). It would appear bonds are starting to look more attractive relative to stocks. Couple all this with the turmoil out of Eastern Europe and I for one shall be reluctant to commit new money to ideas for a while yet.

Market	Symbol	Trend U/D	As of	# wks.	Position	Price	Stop	Target	Comment
Currencies
US Dollar index	DXY	D	09/20/13	35	Short	80.87	80.77	78.685	Br ab=cd; (84.965-80.87)-82.78=78.685.
Cdn. Dollar	CDY	U	05/09/14	02	Long	.9195	.9035	.96125	50% rule; (1.0380+.8845)/2=.96125.
British Pound	BPY	U	11/29/13	25	Long	1.6252	1.6455	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (1.6252-1.5425)+1.5850=1.6677.
Euro. FX	ECY	U	12/21/12	74	Stop hit	1.3424	1.3669	Tgt hit	50% rule; (149.25+120.51)/2=1.3488.
Swiss Franc	SFY	U	09/20/13	34	Stop hit	1.0952	1.1179	1.1509	50% rule; (1.2978+1.0040)/2=1.1509.
Jap. Yen	JYY	U	05/16/14	01	Long	.9873	.9687	1.12265	50% rule; (1.2967+.9486)/2=1.12265.
Australian Dollar	ADY	D	12/20/13	22	Short	.8823	.9419	.8017	Br ab=cd; (1.0531-.8823)-.9725=.8017.
Interest rates (U means up in price, down in yield / D means down in price, up in yield)
Euro-dollars	ED	U	08/16/13	40	Long	99.735	99.743	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (99.735-99.683)+99.72=99.772.
US 2-YR Note	ZT	D	04/04/14	06	Short	109.8125	110.2421875	110.453	Water fall to monthly tgt.
US 5-YR Note	ZF	D	12/06/13	24	Stop hit	121.09375	120.078125	Tgt hit	Testing lows from 09/06/13.
US 10-YR Note	ZN	D	12/06/13	24	Stop hit	125.718750	125.078125	Tgt hit	Testing lows from 09/06/13.
US 30-YR Bond	ZB	U	05/02/14	03	Long	135.53125	131.18750	140.53125	Br ab=cd; (153.34375+127.71875)/2=140.53125.
Stock Indicies
Dow 30	YM	U	07/20/12	96	Stop hit	13365	14749	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (13662-11998)+12476=14140.
Nasdaq 100	NQ	U	08/24/12	90	Stop hit	2791.5	3422	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (2791.50-2135.75)+2433.75=3089.50.
S&P 500	ESY	U	08/24/12	91	Stop hit	1450.50	1760.25	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (1419.60-1147.50)+1262.30=1534.40.
S&P/TSX 60 (Cash)	WSX	U	09/06/13	37	Long	742.39	810.81	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (742.39-637.70)+677.55=782.24.
FTSE-100	FTSE	U	12/14/12	72	Stop hit	6664	6623	6970	Bl ab=cd; (6664-6003)+6310=6970.
Ger. DAX (Cash)	DAX	U	12/07/12	75	Stop hit	8457.05	8994.28	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (8457.05-7655.83)+=8094.22=8895.44.
Nikkei	SNIY	D	04/11/14	06	Short	14110	15230	12330	50% rule; (16450+8210)/2=12330.
SPI Aust. (Cash)	ASX	U	07/16/12	97	Long	5383.40	5288.50	5886.9	Bl ab=cd; (5249.6-3985)+4622.3=5886.9.
Metals
Gold	%GC	D	11/22/13	26	Stop hit	1254.10	1269.40	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (1428.00-1254.1)-1359.7=1185.80.
Silver	%SI	D	12/21/12	74	Stop hit	20.675	20.53	18.695	Br ab=cd; (24.98-20.675)-23.00=18.695.
HG Copper	%HG	D	03/07/14	11	Stop hit	3.21	3.1445	2.6970	Br ab=cd; (3.7755-3.0065)-3.4660=2.6970.
Platinum	%PL	U	05/16/14	01	Long	1468.30	1400.00	1515.95	50% rule; (1736.5+1295.40)/2=1515.95.
Palladium	%PA	U	10/18/13	31	Long	747.65	699.90	862.20	Bl ab=cd;(785-560.4)+637.6=862.20.
Energies
Crude Oil Weekly	%CL	D	01/10/14	19	Stop hit	91.77	100.75	79.68	Br ab=cd; (112.24-91.77)-100.75=79.68.
Heating Oil	%HO	D	03/07/14	11	Short	2.9960	3.0216	2.8108	Br ab=cd; (3.37-2.996)-3.1848=2.8108.
Unleaded Gas	%RBOB	U	02/21/14	13	Long	2.8463	2.8252	3.4455	Testing high fr 03/30/12.
Natural Gas	%NG	U	10/18/13	31	Stop hit	3.869	4.563	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (3.869-3.129)+3.379=4.119.
Softs
Coffee	%KC	U	01/31/14	16	Long	122.75	166.00	Tgt hit	50% rule; (105+240)/2=172.5.
Orange Juice	%JO	U	03/03/14	11	Long	155.75	152.40	Tgt hit	50% rule; (226.95+97.10)/2=162.00.
Cocoa	%CC	D	04/28/14	03	Short	2905	3021	2542.5	50% rule; (3039+2046)/2=2542.5.
Sugar #11	%SB	D	04/18/14	05	Stop hit	16.67	18.10	14.70	Testing lows from 01/27/14.
Cotton	%CT	U	03/24/14	08	Long	93.90	88.63	146.55	50% rule; (227+66.10)/2=146.55.
Lumber	%LB	D	01/31/14	16	Short	351.50	345.80	Tgt hit	50% rule; (378.3+276.2)/2=327.25.
Grains
Soybeans	%S	U	02/14/14	14	Long	1353.50	1443.75	1563.25	Gap to be filled.
Soy Meal	%SM	U	02/28/14	12	Long	468.60	413.80	Tgt hit/font>	Gap to be filled.
Soy Oil	%BO	D	06/28/13	47	Stop hit	46.52	41.81	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (57.78-46.52)-53.57=42.31.
Wheat	%W	D	12/13/13	23	Stop hit	623.00	711.25	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (741.75-623)-711.25=592.5.
Corn	%C	D	07/19/13	43	Stop hit	626.50	434.25	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (843.75-626.50)-730=512.75.
Oats	%O	U	01/17/14	18	Stop hit	398.5	386.00	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (398.5-303)+336.5=432.
Meats
Live Cattle	%LC	D	04/11/14	06	Short	142.625	147.00	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (153.00-142.625)-147.425=137.05.
Feeder Cattle	%FC	U	01/10/14	66	Long	168.475	166.425	Tgt hit	Bl ab=cd; (168.475-155.925)+162.75=.
Lean Hogs	%LH	U	02/28/14	10	Long	102.56	112.20	Tgt hit	Br ab=cd; (102.56-70.375)+80.225=112.41.

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